Will San Francisco's high temperature on April 20 reach 56-57°F? Currently trading at 1% YES odds in this daily weather prediction market.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
San Francisco's typical April weather sees high temperatures ranging from 58-68°F, with a mean of around 62°F during mid-April. The 56-57°F range represents a cooler-than-average day for the season, though certainly within the realm of possibility given coastal marine influences and seasonal variability. This market resolves based on the official National Weather Service high temperature reading for San Francisco on April 20, 2026, making it an objective and verifiable outcome. Currently trading at just 1% YES odds, the market reflects very low conviction that temperatures will fall into this narrow two-degree band. A 1% price suggests traders believe other temperature ranges (58°F and above, or below 56°F) are far more probable. The market has seen modest volume of $692 over 24 hours with $6,813 in liquidity, typical for daily weather prediction markets. The odds trajectory will likely shift as April 20 approaches and weather forecasts become more precise, allowing traders to adjust positions based on updated meteorological models and extended forecast updates.
This market resolves based on the official National Weather Service high temperature reading for San Francisco on April 20, 2026, closing at midnight UTC. A YES outcome requires the day's high temperature to fall precisely between 56°F and 57°F inclusive.
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