Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo reach 30°C on April 20? Current odds: 1%. This daily weather prediction market closes at midnight UTC.
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São Paulo, Brazil's largest city, experiences subtropical climate with significant daily temperature variation throughout the year. The prediction market tracks whether the maximum temperature on April 20, 2026, will reach exactly 30°C or higher based on official meteorological measurements. Currently, the market assigns only 1% probability to this outcome, suggesting that weather forecasters and market participants collectively expect conditions to remain cooler than 30°C on that specific date. This is a precise, objectively measurable event: official meteorological stations continuously record daily high temperatures in São Paulo as publicly available data accessible to independent verification. The market will resolve based on data from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) or equivalent official weather authority recognized internationally. The extremely low odds reflect typical autumn weather patterns in São Paulo, where April temperatures generally range between 5°C and 25°C depending on atmospheric conditions and seasonal transitions. The market's price trajectory and trading activity indicate strong confidence among participants in below-threshold conditions for April 20. With trading volume of $518 and liquidity of $5174, this daily weather market represents moderate interest in precise temperature outcome prediction among weather-focused traders.
The market resolves on April 20, 2026, at 00:00 UTC based on the official daily maximum temperature recorded for São Paulo, Brazil by INMET. It settles YES if the highest temperature is ≥30°C, NO if below.
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