Will Seoul's highest temperature be exactly 12°C on April 20? Current YES odds: 1%. Trade this precise weather outcome in the prediction market.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
The Seoul daily high temperature prediction market for April 20 allows participants to trade on whether the city's maximum temperature will be exactly 12°C. This is a hyper-specific weather market typical of recurring daily temperature markets. April is spring in Seoul, and typical April highs range from 15–20°C, making 12°C a relatively cool day for the season. The current YES odds of just 1% reflect this rarity—Seoul would need unseasonably cool weather to reach exactly 12°C as its daily high. The market is resolvable based on official Seoul meteorological data from the Korea Meteorological Administration, providing a clear and verifiable outcome. The extremely low odds suggest traders believe temperatures will likely run warmer than this threshold, reflecting Seoul's typical spring warming pattern. Historical volatility in these daily temperature markets shows that precision temperatures (exact degree matches) typically see very low probability, as actual weather patterns naturally vary and rarely land on such specific values. Market participants are actively monitoring Seoul's weather forecasts as the date approaches, with current market liquidity of $2,757 and 24-hour trading volume of $3,271 indicating sustained interest in this specific temperature prediction outcome.
Market resolves based on Seoul's official daily high temperature from the Korea Meteorological Administration on April 20, 2026, resolving YES only if the recorded maximum is exactly 12°C.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.