Will Seoul's highest temperature be exactly 13°C on April 20? Current YES odds: 6%. Track live odds and trading depth for this weather prediction market.
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Seoul experiences variable spring weather in April, with daily temperature fluctuations typical for the season. The market asks whether the highest temperature on April 20, 2026 will be exactly 13°C—a specific threshold reflecting mild spring conditions. Current YES odds at 6% suggest traders view this outcome as unlikely, reflecting the precision required to hit exactly 13°C rather than nearby temperatures like 12°C or 14°C. Seoul's April highs typically range from 15°C to 22°C depending on weather patterns and the specific year, making an exact 13°C result possible but uncommon. The market structure rewards precision: traders must predict not just the general temperature range but the exact maximum for the day. With $3535 in liquidity and ongoing 24-hour trading volume of $3111, participants have opportunity to adjust positions as forecasts update and April 20 approaches. Weather forecasts from meteorological services become increasingly accurate in the 3-5 days preceding the resolution date, which may shift odds if a cooler-than-average day is predicted. The low implied probability reflects both the specificity of the temperature target and historical patterns suggesting Seoul rarely sees exactly 13°C as a daily maximum in mid-April.
This market resolves YES if Seoul's highest temperature on April 20, 2026 equals exactly 13°C according to official Seoul weather data. If the maximum temperature differs from 13°C by any amount, the market resolves NO.
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