Will Seoul's high temperature be exactly 14°C on April 20? YES odds at 23%. Trade daily weather prediction markets tracking Seoul's temperature extremes.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Seoul experiences significant temperature variation throughout April, with highs typically ranging from 12 to 18 degrees Celsius during the spring season. April 20 falls in the latter part of spring, when the city transitions toward warmer weather patterns. This market specifically tracks whether Seoul's highest temperature on that date will be exactly 14°C—a precise daily temperature prediction common in weather markets. The current YES odds of 23% suggest traders assign roughly a one-in-four probability to this exact outcome occurring. Resolution depends on official meteorological data from Seoul's primary weather station, making this market directly tied to verifiable real-world conditions. The specificity of predicting an exact daily high adds significant complexity; weather systems rarely produce precisely calibrated temperatures. Recent volatility in Seoul's April temperatures has kept these precision markets moderately active, with participation concentrated around realistic seasonal ranges. Traders assess both historical April temperature patterns and current weather forecasts to evaluate the likelihood of hitting this specific threshold. The market's $1,771 daily volume and $3,493 liquidity demonstrate moderate engagement in daily temperature prediction markets.
The market resolves based on the official highest temperature recorded in Seoul on April 20, 2026, by meteorological authorities. It resolves YES only if that high is exactly 14°C; any other value results in NO.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.