Seoul experiences significant seasonal temperature variation, with April typically marking the transition into spring. A daily high of 16°C represents a mild spring day for the city. The market currently assigns a 21% probability to this outcome, suggesting traders view it as plausible but less likely than alternative temperature ranges for April 20. This relatively low odds-implied probability reflects the challenge of predicting exact daily temperatures—weather forecasts rarely align with specific degree outcomes, as daily highs typically vary within ranges of several degrees. Seoul's climate during mid-April generally produces highs ranging from the mid-to-upper teens to low twenties Celsius, depending on prevailing weather patterns. The 21% price reflects substantial uncertainty about whether April 20 will produce precisely this temperature mark. Historical volatility in daily temperature outcomes, combined with the inherent unpredictability of short-term weather systems, supports these current odds. The market will resolve based on official Seoul temperature data, with the outcome determined by the city's recorded highest temperature on the resolution date.