Will Seoul's highest temperature be exactly 16°C on April 20? Current YES odds stand at 21%. Trade this daily weather prediction market.
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Seoul experiences significant seasonal temperature variation, with April typically marking the transition into spring. A daily high of 16°C represents a mild spring day for the city. The market currently assigns a 21% probability to this outcome, suggesting traders view it as plausible but less likely than alternative temperature ranges for April 20. This relatively low odds-implied probability reflects the challenge of predicting exact daily temperatures—weather forecasts rarely align with specific degree outcomes, as daily highs typically vary within ranges of several degrees. Seoul's climate during mid-April generally produces highs ranging from the mid-to-upper teens to low twenties Celsius, depending on prevailing weather patterns. The 21% price reflects substantial uncertainty about whether April 20 will produce precisely this temperature mark. Historical volatility in daily temperature outcomes, combined with the inherent unpredictability of short-term weather systems, supports these current odds. The market will resolve based on official Seoul temperature data, with the outcome determined by the city's recorded highest temperature on the resolution date.
The market resolves YES if Seoul's official highest temperature on April 20 is recorded as 16°C. Resolution uses official meteorological data released on or after the resolution date.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.