Will Seoul's highest temperature reach 17°C or higher on April 20? Current market odds show 28% YES probability, reflecting expectations for cooler conditions.
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Seoul's weather in April typically transitions between cool mornings and mild afternoons as spring advances across East Asia. The prediction market focuses on whether Seoul's daily high temperature will reach 17°C or above on April 20, 2026. With 28% of traders currently predicting yes and 72% predicting no, the market implies that most participants expect Seoul's high temperature to remain below 17°C on that date. This pricing reflects typical mid-April weather patterns in Seoul, where daily highs historically range from 12–18°C depending on the competing influence of seasonal warming trends and occasional cool fronts moving down from the north. The current 28% yes odds represent a moderate underdog position for those expecting warmer conditions, while the dominant 72% no price reflects the market's stronger conviction around cooler temperatures. Temperature movements in Seoul during this period are influenced by both the season's northward migration of warm air masses and occasional cold air systems pushing from Siberia, making day-to-day highs somewhat unpredictable. This market provides a transparent, data-driven way to trade on Seoul's specific weather outcomes, with resolution based entirely on official recorded temperatures from Seoul meteorological services.
This market resolves based on the official highest temperature recorded in Seoul on April 20, 2026. Resolution is determined by Seoul weather service data at midnight UTC.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.