Will Shanghai reach exactly 14°C as the high temperature on April 20? Current odds: 0%. Trade live on Polymarket Trade's weather prediction market.
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Shanghai experiences temperate spring weather in mid-April, with typical daytime highs ranging from 18°C to 25°C depending on weather patterns and atmospheric conditions. The specific question of whether the day's maximum temperature will be exactly 14°C is highly precise, as weather measurements are typically recorded to half-degree or full-degree increments in practical forecasting. The current zero odds suggest the market views this exact outcome as extremely unlikely given historical April temperature distributions in Shanghai. This precision requirement—hitting exactly 14°C and no higher—creates a narrow resolution window that would require cooler-than-average conditions. Market participants pricing this at 0% are effectively assessing that Shanghai's April 20 high will deviate significantly from the 14°C threshold, whether considerably warmer or cooler. The odds trajectory may shift if weather forecasts released closer to the date indicate unseasonably cold conditions, but as of now, the likelihood remains minimal. Anyone trading here would need confidence in highly specific meteorological outcomes. The market serves as a way to test probability estimation against precise, measurable weather data on a defined date.
The market resolves based on the official maximum temperature recorded in Shanghai on April 20, 2026. It settles YES only if that maximum is exactly 14°C, using verified meteorological data.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.