Will Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 18 be 22°C or below? With YES odds at just 3%, the market consensus is clear: traders expect the high to exceed 22°C. Shenzhen in mid-May typically experiences highs in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius (around 26-30°C) as late spring transitions toward early summer warmth. A high of 22°C or below would require unusually cool conditions—well below the seasonal norm for this period. The 3% odds indicate traders place near-zero probability on such a scenario, effectively pricing in normal or slightly warmer-than-average temperatures for May 18. The market resolves based on the official maximum daily temperature recorded in Shenzhen, a straightforward meteorological fact that will be known with certainty by the end of May 18. This is a precise, short-term weather prediction market where the resolution criteria are objective and unambiguous. The recent creation and rapid expiration (2 days) suggest traders are anchoring to near-term weather forecasts from meteorological services.
What factors could move this market?
Shenzhen's climate in May reflects the city's subtropical location in Guangdong province, southern China. By mid-May, the city has moved past the cooler spring months and is entering a period of increasing heat and humidity that will define the summer season. Historical May data shows Shenzhen's average high temperatures typically range from 28–30°C, with extremes sometimes reaching 32–33°C on particularly warm days. A high of 22°C or below is not unprecedented—it can occur on cooler, overcast days or when a cold front passes through—but such days are distinctly unusual in mid-May and represent a clear departure from the seasonal norm. The 3% odds assigned to YES by traders suggests they see only marginal probability of such a cool day materializing. This pricing reflects both historical frequency (cool May days are rare in Shenzhen) and the proximity of the resolution date (May 18 is just 2 days away, leaving little time for unexpected weather shifts or forecast revisions). Traders are likely anchoring to existing meteorological forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration or other regional weather services, which provide 2-3 day outlooks with high confidence. For a high of 22°C or below to occur, Shenzhen would need to experience either a strong southwesterly monsoon flow bringing cool air from higher altitudes, or an unusually persistent cold front—both low-probability events in mid-May. Conversely, the factors supporting a warm day (>22°C) are numerous and climatologically likely: high-pressure systems centered over southern China, warm ocean temperatures in the South China Sea, and the seasonal shift toward summer heat. The current market spread (97% NO, 3% YES) reflects trader conviction that normal seasonal patterns will hold on May 18, with no significant weather system disrupting the expected warm conditions. This type of short-term weather prediction market is particularly popular in Asia, where rapid-resolution weather betting provides a real-time gauge of meteorological forecaster confidence and the public's perception of upcoming conditions.
What are traders watching for?
Official Shenzhen maximum temperature on May 18, 2026 determines binary outcome; check official meteorological records for final reading.
China Meteorological Administration 2-3 day forecast issued May 16—traders likely anchored to professional weather models and confidence levels.
Seasonal May climate in Shenzhen typically 28-30°C highs—market pricing reflects expectation of normal or above-average warmth.
Monsoon and high-pressure system positioning over South China Sea—shifts in these patterns could move temperature expectations.
Resolution date May 18 at midnight UTC (08:00 Shenzhen local time)—full calendar day temperature range determines outcome.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves on May 18, 2026 at 00:00 UTC based on the official maximum temperature recorded for that day in Shenzhen, China. YES wins if the high is 22°C or below; NO wins if the high exceeds 22°C.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
