Will Shenzhen's highest temperature be 24°C on April 20? Current odds: 0% YES. Explore this live weather prediction market with real-time trading activity.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Shenzhen, China's major financial hub on the south coast, experiences variable spring weather in mid-April. This prediction market asks whether the highest temperature on April 20, 2026, will be exactly 24°C—a highly specific, meteorologically verifiable outcome resolved using official data from Shenzhen's weather station. At 0% YES odds, traders currently assign negligible probability to this precise temperature, reflecting market forecasts for either significantly warmer or cooler peak conditions. The market's relatively low liquidity of $3,655 and modest 24-hour volume of $1,339 suggest limited trading interest in this granular weather market, typical for daily temperature predictions. Resolving such precise outcomes depends on highly accurate meteorological measurements; even a one-degree difference from exactly 24°C resolves the market to NO. Traders use these markets to hedge specific weather forecasts or explore the probability dynamics of unlikely outcomes. The market resolves on April 21 based on official Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau records. With zero current odds, the NO side completely dominates, indicating strong market consensus that April 20's peak temperature will differ from 24°C.
This market resolves on April 21, 2026, based on official highest temperature data from Shenzhen Meteorological Bureau for April 20. The market resolves YES only if the highest temperature is exactly 24°C; any other temperature value resolves NO.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.