Will Shenzhen's highest temperature be exactly 27°C on April 20? The market currently prices this outcome at 3% YES odds, with $3.3K in liquidity.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Shenzhen is a major port city in southern China's Guangdong Province, situated in a subtropical climate zone. April marks the transition into warmer spring weather, with typical daily highs ranging from 25-29°C depending on prevailing weather patterns and atmospheric conditions. The market asks whether the highest temperature on April 20 will be exactly 27°C—a specific threshold that reflects mild spring warmth for the region. At current odds of 3%, traders view this outcome as unlikely, suggesting they believe Shenzhen's peak temperature will fall either below or above the 27°C threshold. This low probability reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting temperature to single-degree precision, as weather systems are complex and forecasts contain significant uncertainty. Trading volume has remained modest at $2.9K over the past 24 hours, which is typical for daily temperature prediction markets. The market locks at midnight UTC on April 20, and resolution is determined by the highest temperature officially recorded in Shenzhen that day. Historical temperature data from meteorological stations provides the factual basis for outcome determination.
This market resolves on April 20, 2026, based on the highest temperature recorded in Shenzhen that day. Resolution is determined by official meteorological records for the city.
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