Will Shenzhen reach a maximum temperature of 32°C or higher on April 20? Current YES odds: 2%. Trade this weather prediction market with live real-time odds.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Shenzhen, located in southern China's Guangdong Province, experiences a subtropical climate with warm temperatures throughout the year. April typically marks the transition into warmer months with average highs around 26-28°C. The question asks whether the maximum temperature will reach 32°C or higher on April 20, 2026. This market is directly resolvable through official meteorological data from Shenzhen's weather monitoring stations. The China Meteorological Administration publishes daily temperature records that serve as the definitive source for resolution. April 20 falls within the late spring period when higher temperatures become increasingly common. The current odds show just 2% probability for YES, implying the community forecasts a low likelihood that the maximum temperature will reach 32°C on that date. This suggests traders expect relatively moderate temperatures despite April being a warming period. However, Shenzhen's subtropical climate can produce temperature spikes during particularly hot spring days. The low YES probability may reflect conservative forecasting based on typical early-to-mid April patterns. As the date approaches, market odds may shift if weather forecasts indicate an unusual heat event, allowing participants to adjust their positions based on the latest meteorological information.
This market resolves based on the official maximum temperature recorded in Shenzhen on April 20, 2026, as published by the China Meteorological Administration. YES wins if the high reaches 32°C or higher.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.