Singapore's equatorial climate produces remarkably consistent daily highs, typically ranging from 30 to 32°C year-round. The May 3 market asks whether the day's maximum temperature will be exactly 26°C, representing a roughly 5°C drop from seasonal norms. At 1% odds, traders assess this outcome as extremely unlikely—26°C highs are typically seen only during rare heavy downpours or unusual atmospheric conditions. Singapore's weather is dominated by monsoon patterns and constant moisture, making extreme temperature swings uncommon. The current price reflects consensus that standard tropical conditions will prevail. Historically, temperatures below 28°C during Singapore's daytime are exceptional events. The market tracks whether May 3 will experience such an anomalous cooling, either from prolonged rain, cloud cover, or an unusual cold front. This specificity—not just will it be cool but will it be exactly 26°C—explains the microscopic odds.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Singapore's position at the equator places it in one of Earth's most thermally stable climates. The island sits surrounded by the Strait of Malacca and South China Sea, with dominant maritime influence moderating temperature extremes. The monsoon system driving Southeast Asian weather produces two distinct wet seasons—the Northeast Monsoon (December-March) and Southwest Monsoon (May-September)—with corresponding dry periods. May 3 falls during the early Southwest Monsoon transition, historically characterized by variable precipitation but consistent warmth. Daily maximum temperatures in Singapore during May typically range from 31 to 33°C, with overnight lows around 23-25°C. A 26°C high would represent a significant collapse from baseline, requiring either sustained heavy rainfall suppressing solar heating or an unusual atmospheric pattern pushing cooler air south from Malaysia. Historical records from Singapore's Meteorological Department show days with maximum temperatures below 27°C occur fewer than 5 times per year on average, almost exclusively tied to periods of intense rainfall or rare cold-air outbreaks. The 1% odds price suggests traders have identified no scheduled major weather system for May 3 capable of generating such cooling. Recent pattern analysis indicates the pre-monsoon transition typically brings scattered thunderstorms but rarely sustained cloud cover deep enough to suppress highs to 26°C. What could move the market toward YES: a surprise tropical depression or squall line tracking across Singapore on May 3, creating all-day cloud cover and rainfall that suppresses solar radiation significantly. What could move the market toward NO: continued observations of typical May warmth and clearing forecasts showing strong solar insolation through the day. The 1% price reflects rational skepticism given that prediction markets on recurrent daily weather events typically see YES odds for normal outcomes in the 40-70% range and extreme outcomes like 26°C highs in sub-2% territory unless a specific catalytic weather system is forecast. The extreme illiquidity ($1,073) and low 24-hour volume ($317) suggest limited trader interest, typical for weather markets on routine days without notable systems.
What traders watch for
May 3 morning forecast updates released May 2-3: cloud cover percentage, rainfall probability, and solar radiation estimates critical to assessing 26°C feasibility.
Regional weather radar images and squall line tracking from Malaysian Met Office: any system moving toward Singapore could trigger cooling needed for YES.
Singapore Airport METAR observations through May 3 morning: wind speed, cloud ceiling height, and precipitation amounts will determine final high temperature outcome.
Historical analogues: check past dates (past 5 years) when Singapore recorded sub-27°C daily highs to understand meteorological conditions required for YES resolution.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if Singapore's highest temperature on May 3, 2026 (measured at Changi Airport or official Meteorological Department reading) equals exactly 26°C; resolves NO if the high is any other temperature.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
