Singapore's tropical equatorial climate consistently produces daily maximum temperatures of 31–32°C during May, making an exact reading of 28°C extraordinarily improbable. The current 1% market odds reflect this reality: traders view the outcome as requiring an exceptional cooling event—unusual monsoon intensity, sustained cloud cover, or rare atmospheric conditions. Such a three-to-four degree dip below seasonal norms would be unprecedented for May in Singapore's recorded weather history. The market resolves via official daily maximum temperature published by Singapore's Meteorological Department on May 3. With zero trading volume and minimal liquidity, this hyperspecific market exemplifies how daily weather predictions with exact-match criteria attract minimal capital. Most prediction market traders prefer threshold-based forecasts (above or below specific values) rather than exact-value outcomes, which compress probability into narrow bands.
Deep dive — what moves this market
Singapore's position near the equator (1.3°N latitude) combined with its island geography and dense urban development creates a remarkably stable tropical climate. May marks the onset of the Southwest Monsoon season (May–September), typically bringing increased cloud cover and afternoon rainfall, yet daytime temperatures remain constrained within a narrow range due to intense equatorial solar radiation and the urban heat island effect of the city-state's concentrated development. Meteorological records spanning decades show May's average daily maximum temperature hovers around 31–32°C, with readings below 29°C occurring extremely rarely—perhaps once per several years during anomalous atmospheric conditions. A maximum of exactly 28°C would require an extraordinary combination of factors: sustained heavy cloud cover throughout the daylight hours, significant rainfall that suppresses afternoon solar heating, or the rare passage of a deep low-pressure system channeling cooler maritime air across the region. The 1% market odds faithfully reflect this statistical improbability. The gap between typical May highs (31°C+) and the 28°C target represents roughly a three-to-four degree cooling anomaly—a magnitude rarely observed even during the most active monsoon surges. Historical analogs might include exceptional weather systems or unusual seasonal patterns, but such events remain genuinely infrequent. The market's low liquidity and zero recent volume suggest it may be inefficiently priced, functioning more as a nominal contrarian position than a genuine forecast. Traders have essentially priced this as a 'no' by default, with the 1% reflecting a floor rather than conviction-weighted probability. The spread implies that prediction market participants view a 28°C high as so unlikely relative to Singapore's typical May temperature distribution that meaningful capital allocation is absent.
What traders watch for
Singapore Meteorological Department publishes official daily maximum temperature reading by evening May 3
Monsoon intensity forecast and any weather advisories issued for Singapore on May 3
Actual cloud cover and rainfall observations throughout May 3 daylight hours
Temperature deviation from May seasonal baseline of 31–32°C typical highs
Final resolution at market close May 3 00:00 UTC based on meteorological authority confirmation
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves on May 3, 2026, at 00:00 UTC based on the official daily maximum temperature recorded by Singapore's Meteorological Department. YES wins if the recorded high is exactly 28°C; otherwise NO wins.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
