Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be exactly 16°C on April 20? Current YES odds: 0%. This weather prediction market closes on April 20.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Tokyo's climate in mid-April typically produces maximum daily temperatures between 18°C and 22°C as spring progresses toward early summer. A high of exactly 16°C would represent notably cool conditions for this time of year, running several degrees below the seasonal norm. The prediction market at 0% YES odds reflects traders' strong conviction that such a specific temperature outcome is unlikely to occur. Precision weather prediction markets are inherently challenging because meteorological temperature readings rarely align with single-degree exactness. This market effectively tests whether Tokyo will experience an unusually cool spring day on April 20, 2026. The market's resolution depends on official temperature data published by Tokyo's meteorological authority for that specific date. Current market odds of 0% suggest traders believe the probability of this exact temperature is negligible compared to other possible outcomes within the typical range. With the market closing on April 20 itself, the extremely short time horizon leaves little room for significant odds shifts, and weather forecasts approaching the resolution date may provide additional clarity on atmospheric conditions. The lack of meaningful trading volume at these odds indicates minimal trader conviction for a 16°C maximum.
This market resolves YES if Tokyo's maximum temperature on April 20, 2026 equals 16°C according to official meteorological data, and NO for any other reading.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.