Will Tokyo's highest temperature be exactly 19°C on April 20? The prediction market shows YES at 1%, reflecting consensus the temperature will differ.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Tokyo's daily maximum temperature is a measurable meteorological event tracked across prediction markets. On April 20, 2026, this market resolves whether the highest temperature in Tokyo will reach exactly 19 degrees Celsius. At current odds of 1% for YES, the market prices this outcome as highly unlikely, indicating trader consensus expects the actual high to fall below or above this specific threshold. Tokyo in late April experiences mild spring weather with typical daytime highs ranging from 18°C to 25°C. For the market to resolve YES, the maximum temperature must be precisely 19°C—not 18.9°C or 19.1°C—based on official meteorological records. The stringency of this requirement explains the low probability assignment, as hitting any exact temperature point is statistically uncommon. Historical weather data shows daily temperature maximums rarely align perfectly with single-degree increments. Resolution occurs at midnight UTC on April 20 using the official Tokyo Meteorological Agency's recorded maximum temperature. The market's current volume of $2,124 and liquidity of $3,770 reflect the specialized nature of daily weather specificity trading.
Market resolves on April 20, 2026 at midnight UTC based on the Tokyo Meteorological Agency's official maximum temperature reading. YES wins if the recorded high is exactly 19°C; NO wins for any other value.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.