Will Toronto reach 11°C or higher on April 20? Current YES odds: 0%. Trade this daily weather prediction market live with other traders.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Toronto's daily high temperature market for April 20 tracks whether the city will reach 11°C or higher during the day. This recurring daily market mirrors real-world weather conditions and serves as a straightforward resolution test using official Environment Canada data. At 0% YES odds, traders have priced in a consensus view that Toronto will experience cooler conditions, staying below the 11°C threshold. This is consistent with mid-April weather patterns in the Greater Toronto Area, where spring temperatures can be unpredictable. The 0% pricing doesn't necessarily mean the outcome is impossible, but rather reflects the current forecast confidence and recent weather trends. Historically, 11°C represents a mild spring day in Toronto, and the market's current odds suggest conditions will be colder. The market resolves at close on April 20 based on the highest recorded temperature at Toronto's primary weather station. The odds may shift if new weather forecasts emerge indicating a warming trend, though current conditions and forecasts appear stable at this low price point.
The market resolves to YES if Toronto's highest temperature on April 20 reaches 11°C or higher according to Environment Canada data. Resolution occurs at market close on April 20, 2026.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.