This market resolves based on Warsaw's recorded highest temperature on May 18, 2026. The question asks whether that daily high will equal exactly 11°C. Currently trading at 0% YES odds, the market reflects strong trader confidence that this precise temperature outcome is highly improbable. Mid-May in Warsaw typically sees highs between 15–22°C; a high of just 11°C would require unusually cool conditions with cloud cover, precipitation, and northerly winds. The fact that this exact temperature shows zero odds indicates traders believe temperatures will either exceed or fall below 11°C rather than land on this narrow target. Market depth of $8,210 demonstrates modest interest in this highly specific daily weather resolution.
What factors could move this market?
Warsaw in mid-May typically experiences spring warmth with average highs in the 18–20°C range. An 11°C high would represent a sharp departure from seasonal norms, requiring distinct meteorological conditions. Such a cool day might occur if a strong cold front pushed across Central Europe, bringing persistent cloud cover, rain, and cool air masses from the Baltic or Arctic regions. Historical May records for Warsaw show cooler days do occur, though precise 11°C readings are statistically uncommon; more typically, notably cool May days register at 8–13°C or 15–17°C rather than hitting this exact single-degree band. The 0% odds indicate traders assess the probability of exactly 11°C—not 10°C, not 12°C—as near-zero in their models. Several factors support this view. Temperature readings vary by station location within Warsaw, observation time, and reporting precision; official measurements might round to the nearest degree or tenth, introducing ambiguity about what constitutes 'exactly 11°C'. Recent European May patterns show steady spring warming, with cold spells becoming scarce by month's end. May 18 falls in the late-spring window when polar influences typically weaken substantially. Traders also place minimal credence in tail-risk scenarios—unexpected cold surges or circulation breakdowns that would force temperatures anomalously low—viewing such outcomes as negligible against the base case of mid-to-upper-teen highs typical of late May in Central Europe. This market functions primarily as an informational signal rather than a high-conviction instrument. The extreme price reflects genuine statistical improbability: hitting any single exact temperature is inherently difficult, and hitting precisely 11°C when seasonal expectation is 15°C+ is orders of magnitude less likely than a range outcome.
What are traders watching for?
Official meteorological high temperature for Warsaw on May 18 recorded by Polish weather authority determines resolution
European weather model forecasts track cold front positions and spring pressure system strengths through mid-May
Real-time temperature data throughout May 18 morning and afternoon determines if unusual cool develops
Measurement precision and rounding protocols at Warsaw's official station affect exact high reading
How does this market resolve?
Resolves YES if Warsaw's official highest recorded temperature on May 18, 2026 equals exactly 11°C; resolves NO for any other temperature reading.
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