Warsaw, Poland experiences variable spring conditions in mid-April. A maximum temperature of 5°C or below is exceptionally cold for this time of year, as Warsaw's typical April highs range from 15–17°C. The current market odds of 0% indicate traders view such severe cold as virtually impossible. This reflects both historical climate data and weather forecasting models, which typically show April temperatures well above the 5°C threshold. The market resolves based on official meteorological data from Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), which provides verified daily maximum temperatures for Warsaw. An outcome of 5°C or below would require an unusual late-season Arctic air mass to push into Central Europe—a rare occurrence in late spring. Traders currently pricing this scenario at zero probability suggest a strong collective belief that normal spring warming will continue. This recurring daily weather market demonstrates consistent interest in temperature-based outcomes among the trading community.