Will Warsaw's highest temperature be exactly 6°C on April 20, 2026? Current YES odds: 0%. Trade this specific weather prediction market on Polymarket Trade.
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Warsaw's weather in late April typically ranges from 10–18°C, with occasional cool mornings bringing temperatures to 6–8°C. However, this market asks specifically whether the highest temperature recorded on April 20, 2026, will be exactly 6°C—a narrow threshold that requires precise conditions. The 0% odds assigned to this outcome reflect trader assessment that the daily high is unlikely to stop at precisely 6°C rather than 7°C or 5°C. Exact temperature prediction markets are inherently challenging because a high of 6.1°C would resolve as NO. The current pricing suggests strong conviction that April 20's weather will be warmer than 6°C, possibly influenced by typical spring warming patterns and seasonal forecasts. This recurring daily market settles based on official meteorological measurements from Warsaw weather stations, providing transparent, verifiable resolution criteria.
This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded in Warsaw on April 20, 2026, according to official Polish meteorological data. Settlement occurs at market close when the official daily high is confirmed.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.