Will the highest temperature in Wellington reach exactly 11°C on April 20? Current YES odds: 0%. Trade this daily weather market using official MetService data.
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Wellington, New Zealand's capital, experiences variable temperate weather, especially during autumn. This prediction market resolves based on whether the highest temperature in Wellington on April 20 will be exactly 11°C, as determined by official meteorological measurements. At 0% current odds, traders assign virtually zero probability to this precise outcome, reflecting market skepticism about exact temperature thresholds. April typically sees Wellington in transition through late autumn toward spring, with variable conditions. Weather-focused prediction markets like this attract enthusiasts analyzing seasonal patterns and daily meteorological trends. The relatively low liquidity ($4,954) and 24-hour volume ($1,263) indicate this is a specialized market for traders interested in granular weather forecasting rather than broader temperature ranges. The 0% odds suggest traders expect either warmer spring-like conditions or consider this exact threshold improbable. Daily temperature prediction markets serve dual purposes: they provide trading opportunities and generate data on expected temperature distributions for specific dates and locations. Such precision-focused markets require exact matches rather than ranges, which partially explains the niche participation and minimal odds assignment.
This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded in Wellington on April 20, 2026, using official meteorological data. The market settles YES if the maximum temperature is exactly 11°C, and NO otherwise.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.