Will Wellington's highest temperature be exactly 14°C on April 20? Currently trading at 18% YES. Prediction market on daily weather.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Wellington is New Zealand's capital and second-largest city. It has a temperate oceanic climate with relatively cool temperatures year-round. An April 20 high of exactly 14°C represents a notably cool day for autumn in Wellington, where typical April highs average around 15-17°C. This market is resolvable because the maximum temperature recorded at Wellington's official weather stations will be publicly available from meteorological authorities. The current 18% YES price suggests traders assess this exact outcome as unlikely but possible. Weather prediction markets typically fluctuate based on meteorological forecasts and seasonal temperature patterns. At 18%, the market is pricing in a substantial probability that Wellington's high will deviate from exactly 14°C, either warmer or cooler than that threshold. Traders tracking this market would reference regional weather models and historical April weather data for Wellington.
This market resolves on April 20, 2026 based on the recorded highest temperature in Wellington from the New Zealand Meteorological Service. It resolves YES if the maximum temperature is exactly 14°C; otherwise NO.
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