Will Wellington's highest temperature be 17°C on April 20? YES odds: 3%. Live prediction market on daily weather with precise temperature trading.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Wellington, the capital of New Zealand, experiences variable weather patterns throughout spring and autumn. The prediction market is pricing the probability that the city's highest temperature will be exactly 17°C on April 20, 2026, a relatively cool day for the southern hemisphere autumn season. The 3% YES odds suggest traders view this specific temperature point as unlikely, expecting Wellington's high to deviate either warmer or cooler than this precise figure. Weather data from New Zealand's MetService is publicly available and serves as the official resolution source for all temperature-based prediction markets. The daily high temperature reflects readings from the official weather station in Wellington, making this market objectively resolvable and auditable. Historical April temperatures in Wellington typically range from 12–18°C, so 17°C falls within the expected climatological range but requires significant precision to match exactly. The low probability pricing indicates traders expect the high to miss this exact figure, with expectations leaning toward 16°C or 18°C instead. Weather prediction markets help traders quantify and express their confidence in specific atmospheric outcomes, while the compressed odds on a single-degree threshold reflect the genuine meteorological uncertainty inherent in single-day forecasting.
The market resolves on April 20, 2026 based on the maximum temperature recorded in Wellington, New Zealand according to MetService official weather data. Market resolves YES if the high temperature is exactly 17°C; any other value resolves NO.
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