Will Wellington's highest temperature reach 18°C on April 20? Current odds: 1% YES. Trade real-time weather prediction market with live odds.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
April 20, 2026 is a recurring daily temperature trading window for Wellington, New Zealand. This market contracts on whether the city's maximum recorded temperature will equal exactly 18°C on that date. Wellington's autumn weather typically ranges from 10°C to 18°C during this season, making specific temperature predictions a precise exercise. The market currently prices the 18°C outcome at just 1% implied probability, suggesting traders expect the daily high will fall below or significantly exceed this threshold. Historical April weather data shows Wellington rarely hits exact temperature milestones; the 1% pricing reflects this scarcity and the specificity of the threshold. Weather prediction markets derive their settlement data from official meteorological recordings provided by New Zealand's national weather service, ensuring transparent and objectively verifiable resolution. The market closes at midnight UTC on April 20, giving traders approximately 24 hours of real-time price updates as weather forecasts refine through the day. Daily temperature markets like this one appeal to traders interested in weather volatility and short-duration prediction positions. Trading volume of $2,527 in 24 hours indicates modest but consistent interest in temperature-specific markets, typical for daily recurring weather contracts.
Market resolves based on the official maximum temperature recorded in Wellington on April 20, 2026, as reported by New Zealand's meteorological service. Settlement occurs at market close (UTC midnight April 20) when the day's final temperature reading is confirmed.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.