Will Wuhan's highest temperature reach exactly 19°C on April 20? Current YES odds are 1%, reflecting the precision required for this specific outcome.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Wuhan, the capital of Hubei Province in central China, experiences highly variable spring weather in April as the transition between seasons brings both warm days and occasional cool spells. The highest temperature on any given day depends on atmospheric patterns, cloud cover, and seasonal wind systems affecting the region. This market resolves based on official weather data from Wuhan meteorological stations, making the outcome objectively verifiable through public sources and meteorological databases. At 1% YES odds, the market implies that an exact high of 19°C is extremely unlikely for April 20, suggesting traders expect either warmer temperatures typical of late spring weather or cooler anomalies that would exceed this narrow band. April highs in Wuhan typically range from 20°C to 28°C depending on regional weather systems, so hitting exactly 19°C would represent a notably cooler-than-average outcome for this season. The current odds trajectory reflects the rarity of such precise temperature alignment with evolving weather prediction data and historical seasonal patterns observed in the region.
This market resolves YES if Wuhan's highest temperature on April 20, 2026, equals exactly 19°C according to official meteorological data. Resolution occurs at market end time (2026-04-20 00:00:00 UTC) based on verified temperature records.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.