Will Wuhan's highest temperature be exactly 20°C tomorrow? Market odds: 2% YES. Prediction markets let you trade weather forecasts in real time.
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Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province in central China, experiences temperate spring weather conditions in April. On April 20, the city typically observes daytime maximum temperatures in the 20-25°C range, though considerable day-to-day variation occurs depending on atmospheric patterns and weather systems moving through the region. This market specifically predicts whether the maximum temperature recorded will be exactly 20°C—a relatively precise threshold that requires particular meteorological conditions to align. The 2% YES odds indicate that traders currently assess the likelihood of a 20°C high temperature as very low, though not impossible. Current weather forecasts and historical April temperature patterns inform this assessment. An exact match to a specific single-degree threshold is inherently difficult to achieve, as weather rarely cooperates with such precision. The market resolves when the China Meteorological Administration publishes official temperature data for Wuhan's monitoring station on April 20. These recurring daily temperature prediction markets allow traders to express specific views on regional weather patterns with odds that continuously update as meteorological forecasts change. The $1,302 trading volume and $3,306 liquidity demonstrate active participation in weather-based prediction markets.
The market resolves on April 20, 2026 when the China Meteorological Administration publishes the official maximum temperature recorded in Wuhan. The market settles YES if the highest temperature is exactly 20°C, otherwise NO.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.