Iran's regime is a complex state system centered on the Supreme Leader and encompassing civilian ministries, military institutions, and the Revolutionary Guards Corps. Regime collapse, as defined for this market, would mean fundamental breakdown of centralized state authority or transfer of effective power to a rival governing structure. Currently, traders are pricing a 7% probability that this occurs by June 30, 2026—reflecting assessment that such transformations are unlikely in a 14-week timeframe. Market prices reflect assessments of geopolitical tensions, internal political conditions, and structural factors affecting state stability. Prediction markets serve as real-time aggregators of informed estimates on low-probability international events. Historically, regime transitions vary widely: some unfold over years, others occur through sudden catalytic events, making short-term forecasting inherently uncertain. Resolution of this market depends on verification through major international news sources and recognized analysis as to whether Iran's regime structure has meaningfully changed before the June 30 deadline. Participants trading on this market are making probabilistic assessments based on available geopolitical information and event indicators.