Seoul's daily minimum temperature on May 17 is the subject of this prediction market, resolving based on official meteorological data published by Seoul's weather station. The current price reflects 0% YES odds, indicating that traders overwhelmingly expect the overnight low to fall below 22°C on that specific date. Seoul experiences characteristic spring weather in mid-May, with average daily lows typically ranging from 15–18°C during this period, making a 22°C minimum threshold notably warm when compared to historical seasonal norms. The market's strong consensus suggests traders view an unseasonably warm overnight reading as highly unlikely in the near term. Current trading activity ($553 in 24-hour volume and $8,348 in total liquidity) underscores the conviction behind the NO position and reflects active interest in Seoul weather markets. The extreme 0% YES odds imply that market participants assess the probability of attaining a 22°C minimum as virtually impossible, placing their confidence in the continuation of typical spring conditions for the region. Historical May weather patterns show that Seoul's daytime highs typically reach the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, with overnight minimums substantially cooler, reinforcing why a 22°C low represents a notably warm threshold for this time of year.
What factors could move this market?
Seoul's spring weather patterns in mid-May are shaped by the transition between cool spring air masses and the initial warmth of approaching summer. The 22°C minimum threshold is notably high for Seoul in May—well above the typical 15–18°C range that characterizes overnight temperatures during this month. For the lowest temperature to reach 22°C, Seoul would need an exceptional warm night, likely requiring sustained warmth aloft and minimal radiative cooling. Such conditions are possible but relatively uncommon in mid-May, occurring perhaps once every several years. Several factors could push the market toward YES. A warm air mass moving northward from the Korean Peninsula's southern regions could elevate both daytime highs and overnight lows. Clear skies during the day, followed by cloud cover at night, might trap heat and prevent the sharp temperature drop typical of spring nights. Additionally, if a high-pressure system dominates the region with southerly winds aloft, warmer-than-normal conditions could persist through the overnight period. Conversely, factors supporting the current 0% YES consensus are substantial. Mid-May in Seoul is still transitional spring, not yet summer; cool maritime influences from surrounding waters can suppress nighttime temperatures significantly. A typical May night sees rapid radiative cooling once sunset occurs, especially when skies are clear. Any passing low-pressure system or shift to northerly winds would reinforce cool conditions. Historically, Seoul rarely experiences 22°C minimums until late May or early June, making such a reading extremely early in the year. The market's 0% YES pricing reflects extreme trader conviction that sub-22°C conditions are virtually certain. This may reflect both historical patterns and current meteorological forecasts for the region. The consensus is so strong that even a single dissenting position is virtually absent, typical for weather markets on near-certain outcomes based on seasonal climatology. Recent years show that Seoul's May climate has remained relatively stable, with no major deviations from long-term norms that would suggest unusual warmth for May 17 specifically. The low trading volume relative to liquidity suggests this is a well-understood event with clear probabilistic consensus. Traders have priced in all available information—seasonal timing, typical weather patterns, and forecasts available to market close—and have concluded that a 22°C minimum is not expected. The 0% YES odds represent one of the strongest possible market signals that participants view the outcome as near-certain.
What are traders watching for?
Seoul's official meteorological station publishes final overnight temperature data by May 17 midnight; market resolves based on recorded minimum.
Weather forecasts for May 16–17 in Seoul; any unusual warm air mass or persistent cloud cover overnight could shift expectations.
Seoul's typical May minimums range 15–18°C; a 22°C low would mark exceptionally warm spring weather for the season.
Current 0% YES odds signal near-total trader consensus that sub-22°C conditions are virtually certain on May 17.
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves on May 17, 2026 at midnight UTC based on Seoul's recorded minimum temperature from the official meteorological station. A reading of 22°C or higher resolves YES; below 22°C resolves NO.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
