Connect wallet to trade · No wallet? Passkey login available · Free alerts at /subscribe
The Mandalorian & Grogu 4-day opening weekend market quantifies trader expectations for this Star Wars theatrical release's opening-weekend box-office performance. Currently trading at 9% YES probability for the $102–112M opening range, the market reveals overwhelming conviction that the actual opening will fall significantly outside this band—either well above or substantially below. The market has logged $32,485 in 24-hour trading volume, and resolution is scheduled for May 26, 2026, providing a liquid, near-term signal of market-wide sentiment. The extreme skew toward NO—91% of the probability mass—indicates that traders view the $102–112M zone as an unlikely outcome. This positioning suggests market participants expect either a blockbuster-scale opening that substantially exceeds this range or a weaker performance that falls short. The binary market will resolve once Box Office Mojo or the studio reports actual 4-day weekend totals.
What factors could move this market?
The Mandalorian and Grogu represents a potential theatrical entry into the Star Wars universe, built on the massive cultural footprint of the Mandalorian streaming series. The series, which has amassed billions in viewership across Disney+, centers on a lone bounty hunter and his adoptive child Grogu (the character colloquially known as 'Baby Yoda'). A theatrical spin-off or feature film derived from this IP would capitalize on both the dedicated fanbase built over three seasons of prestige television and the mainstream recognition of the character duo.
The $102–112M range represents a narrow corridor roughly aligned with mid-tier blockbuster expectations. Several factors could drive the opening toward YES (into this range): an untargeted or casual release date that draws only core streaming fans; mixed reviews that dampen enthusiasm among broader audiences; or competition from other major releases on the same weekend. The 9% odds suggest the market views these scenarios as unlikely.
Conversely, factors pushing the opening much higher (well above $112M) appear dominant in trader conviction. A Star Wars theatrical release with the Mandalorian and Grogu as protagonists would tap into Star Wars's historical strength at the box office—recent theatrical entries have consistently opened at $130M+ on 4-day holidays. The character of Grogu has transcended the streaming platform to become a merchandising and cultural phenomenon, broadening appeal beyond traditional Star Wars fans. A prestige release date around a major holiday (implied by the May 26 resolution date, potentially Memorial Day weekend in the United States) would amplify opening potential. Additionally, the IP's substantial budget and studio backing would support a wide release and significant marketing spend.
Some risk factors could theoretically push the opening lower than $102M, though the market assigns this far less probability. A delayed release, a perceived misstep in marketing, or internal Disney+/theatrical cannibalization concerns could limit opening weekend penetration. However, the 91% probability concentration on NO suggests traders view either a subpar opening or a superblockbuster opening as far more likely than this specific $102–112M corridor.
The market's current pricing reflects elevated confidence in a binary outcome: either the film exceeds Star Wars franchise norms for opening weekend strength, or it falls short of even mid-tier blockbuster expectations. The tight $10M band—combined with its extreme skew toward NO—indicates that the $102–112M zone represents neither base case nor bull case, but rather an unlikely middle scenario in traders' collective view.
What are traders watching for?
Film's theatrical release date and 4-day weekend window—resolution tied to May 26 box-office reporting
Studio marketing campaign scale and prestige release strategy—signals confidence in opening potential
Competing major releases same weekend—fragmentation risk could limit overall opening reach
Critical reviews at premiere—strong or weak early reception shapes opening-day momentum and word-of-mouth
The market resolves on May 26, 2026, based on reported 4-day opening weekend box-office totals for the theatrical release. YES wins if the opening falls within the $102–112M range; NO wins otherwise.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.
