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'The Mandalorian and Grogu' is a Star Wars spinoff theatrical film with its 4-day opening weekend occurring before May 26, 2026. The prediction market is pricing the opening weekend box office at precisely 0% odds for the $112–$122M range, a rare and high-conviction outcome. This narrow band represents solid-to-strong performance for a mid-budget tentpole in today's theatrical marketplace. Current 0% odds suggest traders have extreme confidence the opening will either exceed $122M — reflecting strong pre-sales, tracking data, and franchise momentum — or fall significantly below $112M due to competition, marketing effectiveness concerns, or post-franchise-fatigue headwinds. With resolution just days away, the market has absorbed all available studio tracking estimates, competing releases, and early Thursday previews if applicable. A 0% odds outcome is exceptionally rare in prediction markets and signals near-total consensus among traders that this specific outcome band is off the table entirely.
What factors could move this market?
The 'Mandalorian and Grogu' theatrical film represents a major expansion of the Star Wars franchise into an event-scale big-screen release. The character of Grogu (Baby Yoda) has become a cultural phenomenon since his debut in the 'Mandalorian' Disney+ series, generating significant merchandising revenue and fanbase loyalty. This theatrical film capitalizes on that brand equity and attempts to translate streaming viewership into box office revenue. Industry tracking data and studio expectations have likely guided the prediction market's extreme conviction. Factors supporting a landing within the $112–$122M range would include solid-but-not-blockbuster opening performance, moderate franchise interest, typical seasonal competition in late May, and audience saturation from recent Star Wars releases. Some analysts have questioned whether Star Wars theatrical has durable box office appeal post-2019's 'The Rise of Skywalker' downturn, making mid-tier outcomes plausible for a smaller-scale spinoff. However, the 0% odds indicate traders expect outcomes well outside this band. On the high side, 'The Mandalorian and Grogu' carries genuine franchise momentum, a beloved lead character, strong Disney marketing budgets, and potential for franchise-specific fandom turnout. Tracking data released in the final week before opening typically reveals whether a film is tracking above or below pre-release estimates. If this film has shown tracking above $122M, that would drive odds toward 0%. Conversely, if tracking suggests a subpar opening below $112M due to franchise fatigue, poor reviews, or audience pullback, that too would result in 0% odds for the middle band. Historical context reveals volatility in recent Star Wars theatrical releases: 'The Force Awakens' (2015) opened at $248M; 'The Last Jedi' (2017) at $220M; but 'The Rise of Skywalker' (2019) fell to $177M domestic. For a smaller spinoff focused on a single character rather than a numbered saga film, the trajectory has been downward. The streaming-to-theatrical bridge for series-to-film transitions also varies widely in box office retention. The 0% odds suggest traders have anchored on very recent data likely from final tracking surveys and exhibit scheduling indicating this film will either significantly overperform or underperform the $112–$122M band.
What are traders watching for?
Thursday preview and Friday opening-day box office numbers will confirm whether film tracks above $122M or below $112M range.
Studio's final tracking revision (5–7 days pre-release) signals whether this spinoff meets or misses analyst and market expectations.
Critical reception (Rotten Tomatoes, CinemaScore) and audience sentiment during opening weekend may accelerate or dampen repeat-viewing interest.
Late-May competing releases determine audience split; recent Star Wars theatrical trend since 2019 shapes franchise momentum expectation.
How does this market resolve?
Market resolves YES if the 4-day opening weekend box office for 'The Mandalorian and Grogu' falls within the $112M–$122M range. Resolution occurs May 26, 2026, based on Box Office Mojo or industry-standard box office tracking.
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