The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, a recent theatrical release from the beloved Nintendo franchise, is being tracked in this short-term prediction market focused on its third weekend domestic box office performance. The market closing on April 20, 2026, means resolution data will be available immediately as weekend box office figures are reported Sunday evening. Traders are pricing the probability of a $31M–$34M third weekend at just 6%, suggesting the market expects performance either significantly above or below this specific band. Third weekend results typically reflect audience retention and word-of-mouth momentum—a steady-to-strong $31M–$34M range would indicate healthy legs and sustained interest from the family audience. With $32K in 24-hour volume and $6.8K in available liquidity, this compressed prediction market shows moderate engagement despite the extremely tight resolution window. The narrow odds and imminent deadline suggest most traders have already positioned based on opening and second weekend performance data, with this final weekend range betting at the extremes of conviction. Current odds reflect high uncertainty about whether the movie lands in this specific mid-range outcome versus stronger or weaker third weekend performance.