The Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate currently sits in the 5.00-5.25% range. This market explores whether the upper bound will fall to 2.25% by the end of 2026, a scenario that would require approximately 275 basis points of rate cuts by December 2026. With YES odds at just 1%, participants price this outcome as highly unlikely. Current consensus expectations favor more gradual rate reductions aligned with economic developments. The Fed typically moves the benchmark rate in 25-basis-point steps during eight annual Federal Open Market Committee meetings. Reaching 2.25% would imply severe economic contraction or deflationary pressure requiring emergency policy intervention—a sharp departure from recent communications. The market will resolve based on official Federal Reserve policy announcements and their stated target range prior to December 9, 2026. The minimal probability reflected in current odds suggests the Fed would need to execute an unprecedented easing cycle, contrary to its recent forward guidance and prevailing economic signals. Prediction markets like this one help traders and investors assess tail-risk scenarios involving recession or substantial policy reversal in the final months of the year.