The Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate anchors U.S. monetary policy and directly sets the cost of overnight lending between banks, influencing mortgage rates, savings yields, and credit card APRs across the economy. Rather than setting a single rate, the Fed establishes a target range with an upper and lower bound. This market asks whether the upper bound will be 3.5% at year-end 2026. Currently trading at 36% YES odds, the market reflects trader expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher through 2026—most likely holding the upper bound at 4.0% or above. The 36% probability suggests traders anticipate ongoing inflation concerns or Fed hesitation on deeper rate cuts. For context, the Fed's upper bound was 5.33% after its November 2023 rate hike, reflecting peak restrictive policy. Subsequent rate cuts have reduced it, and this market gauges whether cuts go deep enough to reach 3.5%. The market resolves on December 9, 2026, based on the Fed's official target rate band published after its final FOMC meeting of the year. The odds track economic data releases, employment reports, and inflation prints between now and December, as each data point influences the probability that the Fed will have cut rates sufficiently to lower the upper bound to 3.5%.