Will measles cases in the U.S. reach 2000 by April 30, 2026? Current YES odds: 2%. Market assesses the likelihood of a major measles outbreak in coming weeks.
This market has been archived. Historical content preserved below.
Measles is a highly contagious infectious disease that remains a significant public health concern in the United States despite successful vaccination efforts over decades. This market resolves based on official CDC reported measles case counts through April 30, 2026. The current YES odds at 2% indicate traders assess a very low probability of 2000 confirmed cases being reached by April's end. For perspective, the U.S. has recorded fewer than 100 cases annually in recent years, making a 2000-case threshold an extreme scenario requiring either major breakdown in vaccination coverage, substantial transmission surge among unvaccinated populations, or critical failure in disease surveillance systems. The market's stable 2% price reflects strong consensus that such an outbreak is highly improbable given current vaccination rates, public health infrastructure, and epidemiological conditions. Measles is preventable through vaccination, which remains the primary control measure in the U.S. public health response. Any significant increase in cases would indicate either waning immunity or reduced vaccination uptake, both rare developments in the current landscape.
This market resolves YES if the CDC confirms at least 2000 measles cases in the United States by April 30, 2026, and NO if fewer cases are reported by that date. Resolution follows official CDC surveillance data.
Polymarket Trade is an independent third-party interface to the Polymarket CLOB prediction market exchange on Polygon — not affiliated with Polymarket, Inc. Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. Every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. Polymarket Trade is non-custodial — your funds never leave your wallet. Open the full interactive page linked above to place orders, see order book depth, and execute a trade.