The Strait of Hormuz represents a critical strategic chokepoint through which roughly one-third of the world's maritime petroleum traffic transits daily. Ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran over transit rights, fee structures, and control of the waterway have periodically intensified over the past two decades, with various policy disputes and geopolitical confrontations. This prediction market specifically addresses whether the Trump administration would formally agree to pay Iranian transit fees for vessel passage through the strait by the end of April 2026. Such an agreement would constitute a significant diplomatic shift in US-Iran relations and represent a major departure from longstanding American policy toward the Strait of Hormuz. The current 8% YES odds reflect the trader consensus that this outcome remains highly unlikely within the specified timeframe, though unpredictable geopolitical events can reshape expectations rapidly. The market resolves to YES upon official confirmation that the Trump administration has accepted Iranian transit fee terms. Given the historical US-Iran adversarial relationship and the compressed April deadline, traders are pricing in the low probability of formal agreement within this specific window.