Trump & Powell: Fed Leadership Crisis? | Odds & Market

Jerome Powell became Federal Reserve Chair in February 2018 and was reappointed to a second term in May 2022. Donald Trump has publicly criticized Powell's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening. However, the Fed Chair traditionally serves a four-year term, and attempting to remove a sitting Board Member would require extraordinary political circumstances and would challenge longstanding central bank independence norms. As of late 2026, Powell's second term extends through 2026, making any removal attempt possible but conventionally unusual. The 22% market probability reflects trader skepticism about the political feasibility of such an action within the timeframe. While Trump has expressed frustration with the Fed's direction, an actual termination attempt would represent a significant departure from precedent and face considerable legislative and institutional resistance. The market prices this scenario at roughly one-in-five odds, suggesting most traders view a removal attempt as unlikely despite Trump's stated dissatisfaction with Fed policy.

What factors could move this market?

Jerome Powell took the helm of the Federal Reserve in February 2018, initially earning bipartisan confirmation and Trump's own support. However, the relationship deteriorated sharply during Trump's first term as Powell began raising interest rates in 2018–2019, citing economic strength and the need to prevent inflation. Trump publicly pressured Powell to cut rates, arguing the Fed was overdoing it and threatening economic growth. After the 2020 pandemic shock, Powell shifted to aggressive easing, but by 2021–2022 as inflation accelerated, the Fed resumed rate hikes to combat rising prices. Trump has repeatedly criticized these decisions, claiming they damaged growth and asset values. Powell's term as Chair is explicitly protected under statute—he cannot be removed without cause, and even as a Board Member, termination would require extraordinary justification that exceeds normal policy disagreement. The precedent of removing a Fed official over monetary policy disagreement would fundamentally alter central bank independence, a principle endorsed across both parties since the Volcker era and enshrined in Federal Reserve legislation. Recent history offers limited analogs. Trump did not attempt to fire Powell during his first term despite sustained criticism, instead nominating like-minded governors to the Board. The current 22% market probability suggests traders see a low but non-trivial risk that Trump, if returned to office or maintaining political pressure, might attempt formal removal on technical or other grounds. Key uncertainties include whether Trump would view a removal attempt as politically viable, how Congress would respond, and whether economic conditions in 2026 would further inflame the relationship. A sharp recession or continued inflation could amplify Trump's grievances; conversely, stable growth and moderating price pressures might reduce pressure. The market's pricing also reflects the structural difficulty of such an action: the Fed Chair and Board Members have strong legal protections, and an attempt would likely provoke institutional pushback and media scrutiny. Traders are essentially pricing the intersection of Trump's documented willingness to challenge institutions with the legal and political barriers to removing a Fed official for policy reasons.

What are traders watching for?

• Trump's election or continued political influence in 2026 and his rhetorical framing of Fed policy as economically damaging.
• Economic data releases: inflation, employment, GDP growth, and asset valuations in 2026—recession could amplify removal pressure.
• Federal Reserve policy announcements and rate decisions in 2026; aggressive tightening could intensify Trump's criticism.
• Congressional response and legislative appetite for challenging Fed independence if Trump initiates removal.

How does this market resolve?

Market resolves YES if Trump or a Trump-aligned successor officially attempts to remove Powell from the Federal Reserve Board before December 31, 2026. Resolution depends on public acknowledgment of a formal removal attempt via SEC filings, Congressional record, or credible media confirmation.