Jerome Powell is Chair of the Federal Reserve, nominated in 2017 and reconfirmed in 2022 for a second term set to end in 2026. Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve policy and Powell's decisions in the past, citing concerns about interest rates and monetary tightening. This market asks whether Trump would attempt to remove Powell as a Federal Reserve Board Member by June 30, 2026. Powell's position as Chair is distinct from his status as a Board Member; while a President nominates a new Chair when a term expires, removing a sitting Board Member during their term faces significant institutional precedent and legal complexity. The current 10% YES odds suggest market participants view such a removal attempt as unlikely, though not impossible, factoring in Trump's unpredictable policy approach and documented history of personnel conflicts. The market expires December 31, 2026, providing a window beyond the June 30 conditional date to capture any late-cycle developments. Odds trajectory has remained relatively stable, reflecting persistent skepticism of removal despite periodic political commentary.