Jerome Powell became Federal Reserve Chair in February 2018 under the Trump administration. However, Powell and Trump have clashed repeatedly over monetary policy, especially regarding interest rate decisions. Trump publicly criticized Powell multiple times starting in 2019, including calls for his removal. The relationship between Trump and Powell has remained contentious, creating ongoing speculation about whether Trump would attempt to force Powell out if given the opportunity. Powell's term as Chair runs through 2026, making the June 30 market end date relevant to this question. The current market price of 14% YES reflects participant consensus that formal removal is unlikely but not impossible. This low probability reflects both the political difficulty of removing a Fed Chair and the historical rarity of such actions. Market prices have shifted based on Trump's public statements and policy signals over time. Resolution depends on whether Trump's administration publicly announces or officially attempts to remove Powell as Fed Chair through formal action or documented intent before the end date.