Tyreek Hill to Patriots: 1% Odds — Live Market

Tyreek Hill is a standout NFL wide receiver currently signed to a long-term deal with the Miami Dolphins under a massive contract extension. The Patriots have been rebuilding their wide receiver corps in recent years, and Hill's exceptional speed and field versatility could theoretically interest multiple teams. However, the 1% market odds reflect that Hill joining New England specifically is considered extremely unlikely by traders. Hill is locked into his Dolphins contract through at least 2027, and there are no public reports suggesting Miami would release him. Even in hypothetical free agency scenarios, the Patriots would face significant competition from other NFL teams with greater cap flexibility. The market's low probability price also reflects historical precedent—elite receivers rarely switch teams mid-contract unless facing unprecedented circumstances.

What factors could move this market?

Tyreek Hill signed a massive four-year, $120 million contract extension with the Miami Dolphins in 2023, making him one of the highest-paid wide receivers in NFL history. This deal includes substantial guaranteed money and extends his Dolphins tenure through at least 2027, creating a major structural barrier to any near-term move. Hill has become the centerpiece of Miami's offensive identity under head coach Mike McDaniel, who has specifically built an offense to maximize Hill's elite foot speed, explosiveness, and ability to create separation. Over the past two seasons, Hill has led the league in receiving yards and has been instrumental in Miami's competitive positioning in the AFC East. For Hill to land with the Patriots, several cascading unlikely events would need to occur simultaneously. Miami would need to unexpectedly release or trade Hill—a decision representing a catastrophic organizational failure given the financial investment. The Patriots, meanwhile, would need to suddenly pivot toward immediate offensive investment after years of youth development and simultaneously secure cap space substantial enough to absorb a future Hall-of-Famer mid-contract. Transactions of this magnitude are exceedingly rare in modern NFL history. The dominant factors pushing against this move are compelling: Hill's explicit satisfaction with Miami's system and public statements about being a Dolphin for life; the structural impossibility of release without catastrophic cap implications; the Patriots' demonstrated draft-and-develop philosophy; and the competitive window Miami has built with Hill, McDaniel, and emerging young talent. The 1% odds reflect near-zero credence that either party would pursue this transaction short of an extraordinary black-swan event like a career-ending injury or complete organizational regime change.

What are traders watching for?

• Miami Dolphins contract status unchanged through 2027; no restructuring reports as of August 31 deadline.
• New England Patriots maintain youth development strategy; zero reported interest in pursuing elite mid-contract acquisitions.
• Any significant Hill injury or legal issue reshapes both teams' planning before resolution date.
• NFL trade deadline passes March 2026; mid-season elite receiver transactions historically extremely rare.

How does this market resolve?

This market resolves YES if Tyreek Hill becomes a member of the New England Patriots by August 31, 2026. It resolves NO if Hill remains with the Dolphins or signs with any other NFL franchise by that date.