This market asks whether Wasteland Cop will earn the highest domestic box office gross among all theatrical releases scheduled for April 2026, as measured by May 31. Box office dominance is determined by aggregate earnings across the full month, requiring both strong opening weekend performance and sustained audience interest throughout April. The 0% YES odds reflect the market's strong consensus that Wasteland Cop will not finish as the April box office leader. Such extreme odds typically indicate either clear information about the competitive landscape—such as a dominant front-runner already commanding audience interest—or uncertainty about the film's release status, distribution strategy, or commercial viability. May 31 marks the official measurement threshold, capturing all earnings for April releases reported through that date. The collapse to zero suggests traders view this outcome as essentially implausible given current market fundamentals.
Deep dive — what moves this market
April 2026 represents a competitive month in the theatrical calendar, with studios typically releasing a diverse slate of films across multiple genres to capture audience interest during the spring period. The question of which film will dominate the domestic box office for an entire month is determined by aggregate earnings across the full April window, not just opening weekend performance. Wasteland Cop would need to achieve both a strong opening weekend—a critical foundation for box office success—and superior long-term holding power compared to all other April releases to claim the top spot by May 31. The extended measurement window through May 31 captures full April grosses plus any May earnings for April releases before the month officially closes in reporting. The market's 0% odds suggest significant trader conviction about the implausibility of this scenario. Such extreme odds typically arise in specific circumstances: the film has not been released or is not scheduled for April distribution, making the outcome mechanically impossible; a clearly dominant competitor already commands the box office conversation and audience mindshare; the film's actual release date falls outside April despite associations with that month; or the film's projected performance significantly lags behind other major April releases in resources and marketing investment. Box office supremacy requires sustaining viewer interest across the 4-5 week April window, avoiding critical reception or word-of-mouth issues that cause sharp drops, and strategically benefiting from the specific competitive environment of that release month. Historical patterns show that April's box office leader typically combines solid opening weekend earnings with strong franchise appeal, cultural relevance, or critical acclaim that drives repeat viewings and sustained ticket sales. The collapse to zero implies the market views Wasteland Cop as lacking this combination—pointing to insufficient marketing momentum, unfavorable release timing relative to better-positioned competitors, or fundamental uncertainty around the film's commercial viability and audience appeal. Any meaningful shift in these factors could theoretically move the odds off zero.
What traders watch for
Wasteland Cop's confirmed April 2026 theatrical release date, studio backing, and marketing campaign scale
Opening weekend box office performance and early earnings versus other major April releases
Week-by-week domestic gross tracking, audience hold rates, and critical reception through May
Final cumulative April earnings verification and dominance determination by May 31 deadline
How does this market resolve?
The market resolves on May 31, 2026, based on verified domestic box office earnings for all theatrical releases with April 2026 release dates. Wasteland Cop must achieve the highest cumulative domestic gross among all April releases by the resolution date to trigger YES.
Prediction markets aggregate trader expectations into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket Trade, every market question resolves YES or NO based on a specific event outcome; traders buy shares of the side they believe will resolve positively. Prices range 0¢ (certain no) to 100¢ (certain yes) and naturally reflect the crowd-implied probability of YES. This page summarizes the market state for readers arriving from search; for live trading (place orders, see order book depth, execute a trade) open the full interactive page linked above.
