Ceasefire markets track the probability of peace agreements, diplomatic resolutions, and conflict de-escalation across geopolitical hotspots. On Polymarket, these markets aggregate predictions on whether major international tensions will resolve within specific timeframes—from permanent peace deals to temporary truces and negotiation milestones. The ceasefire tag includes markets on ongoing US-Iran relations, with key questions like: • Will a permanent US-Iran peace deal occur by April 30, 2026? • Will a permanent US-Iran peace deal occur by May 31, 2026? • Will a permanent US-Iran peace deal occur by June 30, 2026? Prices on ceasefire markets fluctuate based on real-world developments that signal diplomatic progress or escalation risk. Key price movers include official statements from government officials, multilateral negotiation announcements, military posturing, economic sanctions changes, and third-party mediation efforts. Markets may spike on positive diplomatic signals—such as back-channel talks or public statements committing to negotiations—and drop on hostile rhetoric, military actions, or failed negotiation rounds. Participants use these markets to assess the likelihood of peace outcomes based on current geopolitical conditions. Prices reflect aggregate expectations, combining news analysis, expert opinion, and real-time information flow. Price movements encode the collective forecast of when and whether parties will reach agreement. These markets serve as a barometer for global stability and are particularly useful for those tracking international relations, policy implications of conflict resolution, or the timeline for major peace settlements. Whether you're analyzing geopolitical risk or monitoring diplomatic developments, ceasefire markets offer transparent price discovery on outcomes that shape world events.