German elections prediction markets offer a window into the most likely political outcomes across Germany's federal and regional contests. These markets track outcomes ranging from the 2026 federal Bundestag elections to state-level races (Landtag) in Sachsen-Anhalt, Berlin, and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Common questions on these markets center on seat distributions and coalition formations. Will the AfD win an absolute majority in Sachsen-Anhalt? Can the Greens secure the most seats in Berlin? What are the odds of a three-party coalition at the federal level? Prediction markets price these outcomes continuously based on polling data, political statements, and real-time developments. Several key factors move market prices. Official opinion polls from German polling institutes form the foundation of market expectations, though prices often capture more nuance than raw polling numbers suggest. Coalition mathematics are critical: a party's seat count only matters if coalition partners agree to govern together. Beyond polling, inflation rates, unemployment trends, policy announcements, and historical voting patterns all influence market probabilities. Regional variation can be significant—outcomes that differ between Bavaria and Berlin, for example, shape national coalition possibilities. By following these markets, you observe how elections and political events translate into shifting probabilities in real time. Whether you're analyzing a single state's upcoming contest or tracking the complex negotiations required to form a governing coalition at the federal level, prediction markets aggregate diverse perspectives into a continuously updated forecast of political outcomes.