Manila's weather patterns are among the most predictable factors in tropical markets. This tag aggregates prediction markets focused on Manila's daily weather conditions, primarily temperature forecasts. Whether you're tracking the city's seasonal typhoon risk, humidity levels, or daily high-temperature outcomes, these markets provide real-time probability assessments across a range of specific temperature thresholds. Common prediction markets on this page include forecasts for whether Manila's maximum temperature will fall within specific ranges—29°C or below, in the 30–35°C band, or 39°C or higher. Each market reflects the collective assessment of what meteorological conditions are most likely on a given day. Several factors influence how these probability forecasts evolve: **Seasonal patterns** — Manila's tropical climate shows distinct wet and dry seasons. The southwest monsoon (May–September) brings heavier rainfall and cooler temperatures, while the northeast monsoon (October–April) typically sees higher daily maximums. **Historical baselines** — Long-term temperature records and recent weather trends anchor initial probability distributions. Markets adjust as new forecasts from meteorological agencies become available. **Real-time weather updates** — Daily observations, atmospheric pressure systems, and approaching weather systems cause rapid shifts in probability as conditions become clearer or more uncertain. **Time decay** — As forecast dates approach, weather prediction confidence increases, typically narrowing the probability range for specific temperature outcomes. These markets operate continuously, updating as new information arrives, allowing participants to track evolving weather expectations throughout each forecast period.