Weather prediction markets on this page aggregate thousands of participants' expectations about specific temperature outcomes across different cities. Markets featured here cover locations like Wellington and Tokyo, where you can explore outcomes such as whether the high temperature will be 10°C or below, or whether a city will experience exactly 15°C on a particular date. **Common questions in these markets:** - Will Wellington's maximum temperature reach 10°C or lower on April 27? - What's the likelihood Tokyo experiences exactly 15°C on a specific forecast date? - How do temperature expectations vary across different geographic locations? **Factors that move market prices:** Market prices constantly adjust based on what participants collectively expect will happen. Several key factors influence these price movements: **Meteorological forecasts** provide baseline data that participants use to calibrate their expectations. Official weather predictions from meteorological agencies serve as important reference points. **Historical temperature patterns** shape how participants forecast outcomes. Seasonal norms and typical temperature ranges for each location inform expectations about likely outcomes. **Real-time weather systems** drive short-term price adjustments. Changes in atmospheric conditions, pressure systems, and weather patterns get rapidly incorporated as participants update their forecasts. **Geographic factors** including elevation, coastal proximity, and urban characteristics affect local temperatures and influence market dynamics. **Information flow** keeps markets dynamic—as new forecast data releases and weather systems evolve, prices shift to reflect updated expectations. These prediction markets function as crowdsourced consensus mechanisms, combining meteorological expertise with market mechanics. They offer insights into how forecasters weight different variables and adjust expectations as conditions change. Whether you're interested in meteorology, testing prediction models, or exploring how markets aggregate information, these temperature markets provide real-world data points across multiple cities and timeframes.