Keir Starmer became UK Prime Minister in July 2024, leading the Labour Party after years of Conservative governance. This tag aggregates prediction markets focused on Starmer's tenure, political succession, and key moments that may affect his time in office. **What markets are in this tag?** Markets here track questions central to UK political forecasting: - Will Keir Starmer remain Prime Minister through year-end 2026? - Who will be the next Prime Minister if Starmer leaves office? - Potential successors include figures like David Lammy, James Cleverly, Boris Johnson, and Robert Jenrick. These markets reflect trader expectations about internal party dynamics, public opinion, election timing, and legislative challenges. **What moves prices?** Several factors influence market prices on Starmer and succession scenarios: **Polling & public opinion**: Approval ratings, polling trends, and election projections directly affect perceptions of Starmer's longevity. **Party dynamics**: Internal Labour Party stability, backbench sentiment, and factional alignments shape succession probabilities. **Legislative performance**: Key bills, budget announcements, and policy outcomes signal whether Starmer's government maintains momentum. **Economic conditions**: Inflation, employment, and GDP growth affect voter sentiment and media narrative around the government. **External events**: International crises, scandals, or unexpected political developments can rapidly shift predictions. **Timing & elections**: Election cycles and fixed parliamentary terms create natural decision points that traders monitor closely. Prediction markets on political leadership offer transparent, real-time signals of trader expectations. By analyzing prices across markets, you can identify which scenarios traders view as most likely and spot shifts in sentiment as new information emerges.