This tag aggregates prediction markets related to Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukraine–Russia conflict. The markets here track forecasts on ceasefire agreements, conflict duration, and major geopolitical developments involving Ukraine's leadership and military situation. The most-watched markets in this category include predictions on whether a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement will be reached by specific dates—May 31, June 30, October 31, and December 31, 2026. These markets reflect participants' assessments of diplomatic progress, military momentum, and the likelihood of negotiated settlements at various timeframes. Prices in these markets are driven by several key factors: **Diplomatic developments**: Statements from Ukraine, Russia, and international mediators influence probability estimates. Peace talk announcements, summit results, or diplomatic breakthroughs can shift market prices significantly. **Military situation**: Ground control, casualty reports, weapons deliveries, and battlefield momentum affect expectations about negotiation timing and willingness. **International pressure**: Statements from NATO, US, EU, and UN officials influence market participants' views on the likelihood and timeline of conflict resolution. **Economic conditions**: Sanctions impact, energy prices, and reconstruction funding discussions provide context for ceasefire viability. **Zelenskyy's stated positions**: Official statements on Ukraine's negotiation terms, red lines, and strategic goals directly shape market forecasts. These markets serve as real-time gauges of aggregate foresight on one of the world's most significant geopolitical situations. Market prices represent the collective assessment of thousands of participants weighing available evidence and expert commentary.