Analysis Archive
70 published analysis articles across all categories.
Trump out as President by April 30? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Trump out as President by April 30?".
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?".
Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?".
Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?".
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?".
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals?".
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?".
US forces enter Iran by December 31? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "US forces enter Iran by December 31?".
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?".
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?".
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?".
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?".
US forces enter Iran by April 30? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "US forces enter Iran by April 30?".
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?".
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?".
Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?".
US forces enter Iran by March 31? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "US forces enter Iran by March 31?".
Will Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?".
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?".
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?".
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?".
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?".
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?".
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March?".
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March?".
Netanyahu out by April 30? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Netanyahu out by April 30?".
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League?".
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?".
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?".
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March?".
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March?".
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?".
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?".
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?".
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?".
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?".
Netanyahu out by June 30? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Netanyahu out by June 30?".
Netanyahu out by March 31? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Netanyahu out by March 31?".
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?".
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?".
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?".
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?".
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?".
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?".
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March?".
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?".
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?".
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?".
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?".
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? — Current market probability and scenario analysis
Auto-generated structured analysis: market probability, scenario triggers, liquidity context, and execution notes for "Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?".
Will China invade Taiwan before GTA VI? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Live analysis of the China-Taiwan invasion vs GTA VI release timing market: implied probability, liquidity, verified geopolitical context, expert assessments, scenario triggers, and decision-monitor checkpoints.
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Live analysis of the Vietnam presidential succession market: 88.5% implied probability, verified sources, signal strength, scenario triggers, and decision monitoring for YES/NO positioning.
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Live analysis for California 2026 wealth-tax market: implied probability, liquidity and spread conditions, scenario triggers, uncertainty map, and execution discipline.
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Live analysis for the Flavio Bolsonaro 2026 market: implied probability, liquidity, spread dynamics, scenario triggers, uncertainty map, and execution checkpoints.
Will Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Live analysis for Lula 2026 election market: implied probability, spread and liquidity conditions, decision triggers, uncertainty map, and execution checkpoints.
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Live analysis for BTC vs GTA VI timing: implied probability, liquidity, spread, scenario triggers, uncertainty mapping, and decision-monitor checkpoints.
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Live probability analysis for US strike on Cuba by March 31: current implied probability, liquidity, execution risk, scenario triggers, and uncertainty monitoring.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Data-first analysis of the April 2026 Fed no-change market: implied probability, liquidity conditions, uncertainty map, scenario triggers, and decision-monitor checkpoints.
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Data-first analysis of US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026: implied probability, liquidity profile, uncertainty map, scenario triggers, and decision-monitor checkpoints.
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Data-first analysis of US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026: implied probability, liquidity profile, scenario triggers, execution risk, and fail-closed evidence status.
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Structured analysis of the Axiom accusation market: implied probability, liquidity, fail-closed evidence status, scenario triggers, execution mechanics, and uncertainty.
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Structured analysis of 'US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?': market-implied probability, liquidity, evidence map, scenarios, execution risks, and uncertainty.
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Review of the 'US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?' market snapshot: implied probability, liquidity context, evidence timeline, scenario triggers, and resolution risk.
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026? Current market probability and scenario analysis
A structured analysis of the market-implied probability that Anthropic reaches a $500B+ valuation in 2026, including liquidity context, repricing scenarios, and execution risks.
Will Real Madrid finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings? Current market probability and scenario analysis
A structured market analysis of the implied probability that Real Madrid finishes top 4 in La Liga 2025–26, with scenario drivers, execution notes, and liquidity context.
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity's Last Exam? Current market probability and execution context
A structured read of the live market probability for GPT scoring 40%+ on Humanity's Last Exam, including liquidity, spread, scenarios, and execution risks.
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Structured analysis of the US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026 market with probability context, liquidity mechanics, scenario drivers, and verified sources.
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Current market probability and liquidity view
Structured market read for the March 31, 2026 contract with focus on implied probability, spread and depth balance.
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Current market probability and execution context
Live market-implied probability, spread and liquidity context for the US-Iran February 28, 2026 market.
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Current market probability and scenario analysis
A structured analysis of the market-implied probability for US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, with liquidity, spread, scenarios, and execution risks.
