Analysis Archive

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? — YES 74% / NO 27%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Will Spain win on 2026-07-06? — YES 52% / NO 49%. Market analysis with live probability data.

San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers — YES 8% / NO 93%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians — YES 80% / NO 21%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds — YES 70% / NO 31%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros — YES 49% / NO 52%. Market analysis with live probability data.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? — YES 6% / NO 94%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Wimbledon ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alexander Bublik — YES 25% / NO 76%. Market analysis with live probability data.

T20 Series England vs India: England vs India — YES 39% / NO 61%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Wimbledon WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Linda Noskova — YES 68% / NO 32%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Wimbledon ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Flavio Cobolli — YES 87% / NO 14%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Wimbledon WTA: Liudmila Samsonova vs Marie Bouzkova — YES 52% / NO 49%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? — YES 11% / NO 90%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YES 8% / NO 92%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? — YES 54% / NO 47%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance — YES 47% / NO 54%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Will England win on 2026-07-05? — YES 39% / NO 62%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YES 6% / NO 94%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko — YES 95% / NO 6%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Novak Djokovic — YES 19% / NO 81%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Wimbledon WTA: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iva Jovic — YES 56% / NO 44%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Anna Kalinskaya — YES 75% / NO 26%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Wimbledon ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Joao Fonseca — YES 48% / NO 53%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — YES 27% / NO 74%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? — YES 69% / NO 32%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? — YES 31% / NO 70%. Market analysis with live probability data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves — YES 94% / NO 6%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals — YES 76% / NO 25%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06? — YES 35% / NO 66%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies — YES 76% / NO 25%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Wimbledon ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Grigor Dimitrov — YES 48% / NO 53%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Wimbledon WTA: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Maria Sakkari — YES 22% / NO 78%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — YES 10% / NO 90%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Wimbledon ATP: Zizou Bergs vs Jaime Faria — YES 65% / NO 36%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Will Norway win on 2026-07-05? — YES 22% / NO 79%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — YES 10% / NO 91%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Oksana Selekhmeteva — YES 83% / NO 18%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YES 18% / NO 82%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Will France win on 2026-07-04? — YES 84% / NO 17%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YES 10% / NO 90%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? — YES 47% / NO 53%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jan-Lennard Struff — YES 69% / NO 32%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance — YES 92% / NO 9%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta — YES 41% / NO 60%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YES 36% / NO 64%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — YES 80% / NO 21%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YES 7% / NO 93%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Wimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Coco Gauff — YES 76% / NO 24%. Market analysis with live probability data.

Live analysis of the China-Taiwan invasion vs GTA VI release timing market: implied probability, liquidity, verified geopolitical context, expert assessments, scenario triggers, and decision-monitor checkpoints.

Live analysis of the Vietnam presidential succession market: 88.5% implied probability, verified sources, signal strength, scenario triggers, and decision monitoring for YES/NO positioning.

Live analysis for California 2026 wealth-tax market: implied probability, liquidity and spread conditions, scenario triggers, uncertainty map, and execution discipline.

Live analysis for the Flavio Bolsonaro 2026 market: implied probability, liquidity, spread dynamics, scenario triggers, uncertainty map, and execution checkpoints.

Live analysis for Lula 2026 election market: implied probability, spread and liquidity conditions, decision triggers, uncertainty map, and execution checkpoints.

Live analysis for BTC vs GTA VI timing: implied probability, liquidity, spread, scenario triggers, uncertainty mapping, and decision-monitor checkpoints.

Live probability analysis for US strike on Cuba by March 31: current implied probability, liquidity, execution risk, scenario triggers, and uncertainty monitoring.

Data-first analysis of the April 2026 Fed no-change market: implied probability, liquidity conditions, uncertainty map, scenario triggers, and decision-monitor checkpoints.

Data-first analysis of US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026: implied probability, liquidity profile, uncertainty map, scenario triggers, and decision-monitor checkpoints.

Data-first analysis of US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026: implied probability, liquidity profile, scenario triggers, execution risk, and fail-closed evidence status.

Structured analysis of the Axiom accusation market: implied probability, liquidity, fail-closed evidence status, scenario triggers, execution mechanics, and uncertainty.

Structured analysis of 'US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?': market-implied probability, liquidity, evidence map, scenarios, execution risks, and uncertainty.

Review of the 'US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?' market snapshot: implied probability, liquidity context, evidence timeline, scenario triggers, and resolution risk.

A structured analysis of the market-implied probability that Anthropic reaches a $500B+ valuation in 2026, including liquidity context, repricing scenarios, and execution risks.

A structured market analysis of the implied probability that Real Madrid finishes top 4 in La Liga 2025–26, with scenario drivers, execution notes, and liquidity context.

A structured read of the live market probability for GPT scoring 40%+ on Humanity's Last Exam, including liquidity, spread, scenarios, and execution risks.

Structured analysis of the US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026 market with probability context, liquidity mechanics, scenario drivers, and verified sources.

Structured market read for the March 31, 2026 contract with focus on implied probability, spread and depth balance.

Live market-implied probability, spread and liquidity context for the US-Iran February 28, 2026 market.

A structured analysis of the market-implied probability for US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, with liquidity, spread, scenarios, and execution risks.