Analysis Archive
68 published analysis articles across all categories.
Spurs vs. Timberwolves — Market Analysis
Spurs vs. Timberwolves — YES 65% / NO 36%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — Market Analysis
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — YES 31% / NO 70%. Market analysis with live probability data.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics — Market Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics — YES 55% / NO 46%. Market analysis with live probability data.
US strike on Cuba by December 31? — Market Analysis
US strike on Cuba by December 31? — YES 37% / NO 64%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? — Market Analysis
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? — YES 28% / NO 72%. Market analysis with live probability data.
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) — Market Analysis
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) — YES 23% / NO 78%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers — Market Analysis
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers — YES 6% / NO 94%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies — Market Analysis
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies — YES 81% / NO 19%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? — Market Analysis
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? — YES 5% / NO 96%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Pistons vs. Cavaliers — Market Analysis
Pistons vs. Cavaliers — YES 39% / NO 62%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard — Market Analysis
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard — YES 93% / NO 7%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Market Analysis
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays — YES 42% / NO 59%. Market analysis with live probability data.
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) — Market Analysis
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) — YES 19% / NO 82%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? — Market Analysis
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? — YES 13% / NO 88%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders — Market Analysis
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders — YES 17% / NO 84%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? — Market Analysis
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? — YES 7% / NO 94%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? — Market Analysis
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? — YES 19% / NO 82%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Market Analysis
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — YES 3% / NO 97%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? — Market Analysis
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? — YES 4% / NO 96%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nuno Borges vs Rafael Jodar — Market Analysis
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nuno Borges vs Rafael Jodar — YES 10% / NO 91%. Market analysis with live probability data.
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? — Market Analysis
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? — YES 33% / NO 68%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? — Market Analysis
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? — YES 68% / NO 33%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? — Market Analysis
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? — YES 29% / NO 72%. Market analysis with live probability data.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres — Market Analysis
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres — YES 30% / NO 71%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? — Market Analysis
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? — YES 5% / NO 96%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? — Market Analysis
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? — YES 59% / NO 42%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins — Market Analysis
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins — YES 35% / NO 66%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — Market Analysis
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — YES 23% / NO 78%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? — Market Analysis
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? — YES 16% / NO 84%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Knicks vs. 76ers — Market Analysis
Knicks vs. 76ers — YES 50% / NO 51%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? — Market Analysis
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? — YES 4% / NO 96%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees — Market Analysis
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees — YES 11% / NO 90%. Market analysis with live probability data.
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — Market Analysis
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — YES 53% / NO 48%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bangalore — Market Analysis
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bangalore — YES 56% / NO 45%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean — Market Analysis
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjean — YES 70% / NO 31%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Mattia Bellucci — Market Analysis
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Mattia Bellucci — YES 49% / NO 51%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx — Market Analysis
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockx — YES 19% / NO 82%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Noemi Basiletti vs Ajla Tomljanovic — Market Analysis
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Noemi Basiletti vs Ajla Tomljanovic — YES 81% / NO 20%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert — Market Analysis
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert — YES 9% / NO 92%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? — Market Analysis
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? — YES 9% / NO 91%. Market analysis with live probability data.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? — Market Analysis
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? — YES 19% / NO 82%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — Market Analysis
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — YES 7% / NO 93%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? — Market Analysis
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? — YES 57% / NO 43%. Market analysis with live probability data.
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies — Market Analysis
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies — YES 95% / NO 6%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? — Market Analysis
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? — YES 3% / NO 97%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? — Market Analysis
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? — YES 14% / NO 87%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) — Market Analysis
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) — YES 54% / NO 47%. Market analysis with live probability data.
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? — Market Analysis
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? — YES 8% / NO 93%. Market analysis with live probability data.
Will China invade Taiwan before GTA VI? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Live analysis of the China-Taiwan invasion vs GTA VI release timing market: implied probability, liquidity, verified geopolitical context, expert assessments, scenario triggers, and decision-monitor checkpoints.
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Live analysis of the Vietnam presidential succession market: 88.5% implied probability, verified sources, signal strength, scenario triggers, and decision monitoring for YES/NO positioning.
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Live analysis for California 2026 wealth-tax market: implied probability, liquidity and spread conditions, scenario triggers, uncertainty map, and execution discipline.
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Live analysis for the Flavio Bolsonaro 2026 market: implied probability, liquidity, spread dynamics, scenario triggers, uncertainty map, and execution checkpoints.
Will Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Live analysis for Lula 2026 election market: implied probability, spread and liquidity conditions, decision triggers, uncertainty map, and execution checkpoints.
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Live analysis for BTC vs GTA VI timing: implied probability, liquidity, spread, scenario triggers, uncertainty mapping, and decision-monitor checkpoints.
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Live probability analysis for US strike on Cuba by March 31: current implied probability, liquidity, execution risk, scenario triggers, and uncertainty monitoring.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Data-first analysis of the April 2026 Fed no-change market: implied probability, liquidity conditions, uncertainty map, scenario triggers, and decision-monitor checkpoints.
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Data-first analysis of US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026: implied probability, liquidity profile, uncertainty map, scenario triggers, and decision-monitor checkpoints.
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Data-first analysis of US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026: implied probability, liquidity profile, scenario triggers, execution risk, and fail-closed evidence status.
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Structured analysis of the Axiom accusation market: implied probability, liquidity, fail-closed evidence status, scenario triggers, execution mechanics, and uncertainty.
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Structured analysis of 'US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?': market-implied probability, liquidity, evidence map, scenarios, execution risks, and uncertainty.
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Review of the 'US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?' market snapshot: implied probability, liquidity context, evidence timeline, scenario triggers, and resolution risk.
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026? Current market probability and scenario analysis
A structured analysis of the market-implied probability that Anthropic reaches a $500B+ valuation in 2026, including liquidity context, repricing scenarios, and execution risks.
Will Real Madrid finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings? Current market probability and scenario analysis
A structured market analysis of the implied probability that Real Madrid finishes top 4 in La Liga 2025–26, with scenario drivers, execution notes, and liquidity context.
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity's Last Exam? Current market probability and execution context
A structured read of the live market probability for GPT scoring 40%+ on Humanity's Last Exam, including liquidity, spread, scenarios, and execution risks.
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Current market probability and scenario analysis
Structured analysis of the US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026 market with probability context, liquidity mechanics, scenario drivers, and verified sources.
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Current market probability and liquidity view
Structured market read for the March 31, 2026 contract with focus on implied probability, spread and depth balance.
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Current market probability and execution context
Live market-implied probability, spread and liquidity context for the US-Iran February 28, 2026 market.
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Current market probability and scenario analysis
A structured analysis of the market-implied probability for US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, with liquidity, spread, scenarios, and execution risks.