Both markets ask a fundamental question about American politics in 2028: can an unconventional or anti-establishment candidate break through a major party's primary process to secure the nomination? Liz Cheney's path would require crossing party lines entirely—a rare historical occurrence—while Byron Donalds' path requires only defeating his own party's frontrunner and establishment. Though the mechanisms differ, both scenarios operate in a heavily polarized environment where party loyalty typically runs deep. Yet traders have priced both outcomes identically at 1% YES, suggesting they view cross-party nomination and insurgent within-party nomination as equivalently unlikely. At 1% implied probability, both markets reflect trader skepticism that borders on near-certainty in the opposite direction. A 1% YES price means the market expects 99:1 odds against success—a probability range typically reserved for extraordinary outcomes or historical anomalies. The fact that markets permit trading at 1% rather than near-zero suggests some optionality remains in traders' minds, possibly reflecting Cheney's existing political prominence, media accessibility, and security-policy credentials, or Donalds' growing visibility within conservative media circles. But the tight price correlation between two structurally different paths reveals a deeper intuition: neither candidate is viewed as having a realistic pathway to nomination under current political conditions. These outcomes could diverge sharply as the 2026–2028 cycle unfolds. A major party realignment or splinter movement could simultaneously improve both candidates' odds by fragmenting the field, or it could help one while harming the other. For instance, a Republican Party schism might elevate Donalds as a rallying point for an insurgent faction—but would simultaneously make Cheney's Democratic nomination bid harder, not easier, as a fracturing Republican Party signals instability rather than openness to ideological diversity from opponents. Alternatively, the markets might drift apart because external shocks affect each party's calculus independently. An economic crisis, foreign policy crisis, or scandal involving the incumbent or frontrunner could reshape Democratic or Republican primary dynamics in ways that benefit one candidate but leave the other untouched. Readers tracking these markets should monitor: (1) both candidates' media presence, grassroots infrastructure, and fundraising between now and 2026, (2) incumbent and party favorability trends that create space for challengers, (3) early polling from early primary states (Iowa and New Hampshire for both parties; South Carolina for Republicans), and (4) signs of party unity or fragmentation. Cheney's market will likely respond to the Democratic primary field strength, endorsement signals, and how establishment Democrats weigh her electability in a general election against her controversial history on conservative issues. Donalds' will track Republican primary concentration: a fragmented GOP field could lift his odds substantially, while an early frontrunner consolidation could collapse them. Both markets serve as real-time thermometers of how traders assess the durability of the American two-party system under contemporary political stress.