These two markets explore unconventional paths to major party nominations in 2028. The Democratic nomination market asks whether Andrew Yang—who left the Democratic Party in 2021 to found the Forward Party—could successfully return and secure the nomination. The Republican nomination market presents a parallel scenario: whether Eric Trump, the former President's adult son with no prior political experience, could win his party's nomination. Both markets are asking about outsider or unexpected candidates emerging from non-traditional political backgrounds, though through different mechanisms. Yang represents an ideological outsider who previously sought the presidency, while Eric Trump would represent a family-adjacent political newcomer. Both markets currently price these outcomes at 1% YES, assigning them roughly equal probability despite their very different political contexts. This pricing reflects deep skepticism from traders—a 1% probability translates to roughly 99-to-1 odds against success. The equal weighting suggests that markets view the structural barriers to nomination as comparable between the two scenarios. For Yang, this includes reversing his departure from the Democratic Party, rebuilding trust after his 2020 campaign, and competing against more established candidates with broader party support. For Eric Trump, the barriers include his complete absence of political experience, potential concerns about dynastic politics, and the need to build organizational infrastructure from scratch. The matched pricing indicates traders see both paths as extraordinarily unlikely, but not impossible—perhaps a 1-in-100 long-shot rather than a true zero-probability event. These nomination outcomes could follow either correlated or independent paths. If Donald Trump's post-presidency generates heightened political polarization, Eric Trump's positioning within Republican politics could either improve (as a Trump family representative) or worsen (if dynasty politics becomes unpopular). Similarly, Yang's standing with Democrats could strengthen if the Forward Party gains influence or weaken if it fragments the center-left vote. The two races don't directly depend on each other—a Democratic nominee other than Yang does not affect Republican nomination dynamics—but broader political currents could move both probabilities in the same direction. A strong anti-establishment wave in 2027-28 might benefit both candidacies, or a backlash against unconventional politicians might hurt both equally. Traders monitoring these markets should watch several key indicators. For Yang: Forward Party's organizational growth, electoral alliances with Democrats, his media profile and public favorability trends, and whether he reconsiders Democratic Party membership. For Eric Trump: his own political organizing, the broader Trump family's post-2024 political role, signals from Republican leadership about succession, and whether he builds independent political capital. Additionally, watch how major Democratic and Republican primary races develop in 2027—if either party's field becomes unusually fractured or open, long-shot candidates could face slightly better odds. Media narrative shifts and candidate announcement timing will also shape conviction levels on both markets.