Pete Hegseth represents a potential Republican presidential candidate path in 2028, while Liz Cheney's market reflects her chances at the Democratic nomination—two starkly different political trajectories. Hegseth, a Fox News host and former military officer, would need to navigate Republican primary competition and secure the GOP nomination before facing Democratic opposition. Cheney, a former Republican House member who voted to impeach President Trump and later opposed him vocally, would need to find acceptance among Democratic primary voters despite her Republican background. While they operate in different parties, both markets reveal trader assessments of unconventional political figures attempting to chart new courses in 2028. Both markets are priced identically at 1%, suggesting traders view these candidacies as extraordinarily unlikely. This matching probability is noteworthy—it indicates the market assigns roughly equal skepticism to Hegseth winning the presidency and Cheney winning a Democratic nomination. For Hegseth, the 1% price reflects the difficulty of winning a Republican primary against established figures, plus the subsequent general election hurdle. For Cheney, the 1% reflects both the barrier of being a recent Republican switching parties and competing in a Democratic primary where she lacks the party's traditional base. The identical pricing suggests neither candidate has more than marginal support from traders expecting either scenario. The outcomes of these two markets have minimal direct correlation. Hegseth winning the 2028 presidency would depend primarily on Republican primary dynamics and national sentiment against the Democratic incumbent or their nominee. Cheney winning a Democratic nomination has no direct bearing on Hegseth's Republican path—she would be competing within the Democratic primary, a separate competition. However, both outcomes could be influenced by overlapping macro factors: broader political realignment, voter sentiment toward institutional Republicans, and how both parties evolve on key issues like Trump, national security, and political reform. The trajectories could diverge significantly—one party might reward unconventional candidates while the other rejects them, based on party base priorities in 2028. Key signals for Hegseth include his positioning within the Republican Party apparatus, primary candidate lineups, polling trends pre-2028, and whether he builds substantive policy positions beyond media presence. For Cheney, watch her formal party alignment, whether she seeks Democratic registration and endorsements, her media activity and book trajectory, and Democratic primary field composition. Both markets depend heavily on 2026 midterm results, which could reshape party momentum and elite positioning. The 1% floors for both suggest traders would require significant, unexpected shifts—new scandals, surprising endorsements, or broader political realignment—to materially move these probabilities upward.